Research Articles
Indice de estimación temprana del producto interno bruto del sector agrícola usando Google News y Google Trends
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-27242024000200054Resumen
La Oficina Nacional de Estadística de Colombia (DANE) ha estructurado un proyecto con el apoyo de los miembros del Consejo Asesor de Estadística para desarrollar una metodología para calcular un estimador temprano del sector agrícola colombiano utilizando Google News y Google Trends, como una fuente alternativa de información. Este documento describe la estrategia propuesta seguida por el DANE para obtener un estimador temprano del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB). Para el cálculo del indicador descrito, se combinó el uso de la Clasificación de Cero Disparos para analizar la información de texto recopilada de las dos fuentes descritas en los últimos 17 años, con la implementación de un modelo Ridge para estimar el PIB del sector agrícola para el caso de Colombia. Los resultados para el sector agrícola en Colombia indican que las fuentes alternativas de Google Trends y Google News proporcionan información invaluable para predecir tendencias en el comportamiento económico de un sector dado. A su vez, la combinación de técnicas de aprendizaje automático como redes neuronales con técnicas de Nowcasting arrojó un resultado positivo con altos niveles de ajuste y precisión de la proyección de los indicadores en comparación con los métodos convencionales.
Palabras clave:
- Estimación temprana
- proyecciones
- Google tendencias
- Aprendizaje de Maquinas
- Big Data
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