Trends and Volatilities in Heterogeneous Patent Quality in Taiwan

Wen-Cheng Lu; Jong-Rong Chen; I-Hsuan Tung

doi:10.4067/S0718-27242009000200006

Authors

Wen-Cheng Lu National Central University
Jong-Rong Chen National Central University
I-Hsuan Tung National Central University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-27242009000200006

Abstract

This study analyzes patent trends and volatilities for three heterogeneous quality patents in the Taiwan patent system from January 1973 to June 2006. The estimated models are symmetric GARCH and asymmetric EGARCH, providing full sample, rolling sample, and out-of-sample evidence. Three different patent types exhibit increasing trends, using monthly time series data from our samples. ”New design” patents also show time-varying volatility but other types of patents fail to reject the ARCH LM test. Findings show the asymmetric EGARCH model suitable for “new design” patent type through out of sample forecasts.

Keywords:

patent trends
quality patents
Taiwan.

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Author Biographies

Wen-Cheng Lu, National Central University

Department of Economics

Jong-Rong Chen, National Central University

National Central University

I-Hsuan Tung, National Central University

National Central University

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