Diffusion of Emerging Technologies for Sustainable Development: Prospective Assessment for Public Policies


  • Maria Fatima Ludovico de Almeida Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)
  • Carlos Augusto Caldas de Moraes Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE)




emerging technologies, technology foresight, prospective studies, sustainable development, public policies.


Emerging technologies based on biotechnology, nanotechnology, information and communication technologies (ICT), and green chemistry will shape the future of some industries and will transform many others. In many cases, these technologies will determine the development and restructuring of industries as never before. These changes, in turn, will promote debates and revisions of current regulatory frameworks and corporate business models. This paper - which is based on a prospective study carried out by the authors in 2010 - emphasizes the importance of understanding and anticipating movements of driving forces, trends and critical uncertainties at global level, which will influence the diffusion of emerging technologies into industrial processes and business models concerning seven societal sectors. The purpose of this paper is to describe the evolutionary trajectories of these sectors, based on diffusion of the so-called emergent technologies in a time horizon of 20 years.


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Author Biographies

Maria Fatima Ludovico de Almeida, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)

Assistant Professor of the Master Program in Metrology for Quality and Innovation at Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio). She has a PhD degree in Industrial Engineering at PUC-Rio, a M.Sc. degree in Innovation and Technology Management at University of Manchester (England) and a Diploma of Advanced Studies (DEA) in Information Science and Competitive Intelligence from Université Aix-Marseille III (France). Since 2005, Dr. Almeida has been working as a consultant for industrial and government projects focusing on technological forecasting and prospective scenarios building.

Carlos Augusto Caldas de Moraes, Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE)

Adjunct Professor at Candido Mendes University in Rio de Janeiro (UCAM) and Technical Assessor at Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE). He has a PhD degree in Industrial Engineering at PUC-Rio (Brazil), a M.Sc. degree in Business Administration at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (USA) and a Bachelor degree in Civil Engineering at Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). Dr. Moraes  has been working as a project leader in CGEE, especially in those projects focusing on technological forecasting and prospective scenarios building.


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How to Cite

Almeida, M. F. L. de, & Moraes, C. A. C. de. (2013). Diffusion of Emerging Technologies for Sustainable Development: Prospective Assessment for Public Policies. Journal of Technology Management & Innovation, 8, 228–238. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-27242013000300021

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