Diffusion of Emerging Technologies for Sustainable Development: Prospective Assessment for Public Policies

  • Maria Fatima Ludovico de Almeida Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)
  • Carlos Augusto Caldas de Moraes Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE)
Keywords: emerging technologies, technology foresight, prospective studies, sustainable development, public policies.

Abstract

Emerging technologies based on biotechnology, nanotechnology, information and communication technologies (ICT), and green chemistry will shape the future of some industries and will transform many others. In many cases, these technologies will determine the development and restructuring of industries as never before. These changes, in turn, will promote debates and revisions of current regulatory frameworks and corporate business models. This paper - which is based on a prospective study carried out by the authors in 2010 - emphasizes the importance of understanding and anticipating movements of driving forces, trends and critical uncertainties at global level, which will influence the diffusion of emerging technologies into industrial processes and business models concerning seven societal sectors. The purpose of this paper is to describe the evolutionary trajectories of these sectors, based on diffusion of the so-called emergent technologies in a time horizon of 20 years.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

Author Biographies

Maria Fatima Ludovico de Almeida, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)

Assistant Professor of the Master Program in Metrology for Quality and Innovation at Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio). She has a PhD degree in Industrial Engineering at PUC-Rio, a M.Sc. degree in Innovation and Technology Management at University of Manchester (England) and a Diploma of Advanced Studies (DEA) in Information Science and Competitive Intelligence from Université Aix-Marseille III (France). Since 2005, Dr. Almeida has been working as a consultant for industrial and government projects focusing on technological forecasting and prospective scenarios building.

Carlos Augusto Caldas de Moraes, Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE)
Adjunct Professor at Candido Mendes University in Rio de Janeiro (UCAM) and Technical Assessor at Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE). He has a PhD degree in Industrial Engineering at PUC-Rio (Brazil), a M.Sc. degree in Business Administration at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (USA) and a Bachelor degree in Civil Engineering at Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). Dr. Moraes  has been working as a project leader in CGEE, especially in those projects focusing on technological forecasting and prospective scenarios building.

References

BERGEK, A. (2002). Shaping and exploiting technological opportunities: the case of renewable energy technology in Sweden. Department of Industrial Dynamics. Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg.

BERGEK, A., Jacobsson, S. (2003). The emergence of a growth industry: a comparative analysis of the German, Dutch and Swedish wind turbine industries. In: Metcalfe, S. & Cantner, U.: Change (Eds.) Transformation and Development. Heidelberg Physica-Verlag, p. 198-228.

BRESHI, S., Malerba, F. (1998). Sectorial innovation systems: technological regimes, schumpeterian dynamics, and spatial boundaries. In: Edquist, C. (ed.). Systems of innovation: technologies, institutions, and organizations. London: Pinter. p. 130-156.

CARLSSON, B., Jacobsson, S. (2004). Dynamics of innovation systems: policy-making in a complex and non-deterministic world. In: Proceedings of International Workshop of Functions in Innovation Systems. University of Utrecht.

CENTRO DE GESTÃO E ESTUDOS ESTRATÉGICOS (2010). Prospective study on industries of the future and emerging technologies: a vision for a sustainable future. Mimeo. Brasília: CGEE.

EDQUIST, C. (2004). Systems of innovation: perspectives and challenges. In: Fagerberg, J. Mowery, D.C., Nelson, R.R. (Eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

GEELS, F.W. (2004). From sectorial systems of innovation to socio-technical systems: insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory. Research Policy, v. 33, n. 6/8, p.898–920.

GEELS, F.W. (2005). Technological transitions and system innovations: a co-evolutionary and socio-technical analysis, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

GEELS, F.W., Schot, J.W. (2008). Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways. Research Policy, v. 36, n. 3, p. 399–418.

GEORGANTZAS, N. C., Acar, W. (1995). Scenario-driven planning: learning to manage strategic uncertainty. Westport, Connecticut: Quorum Books.

GLOBAL SCENARIO GROUP (2002). Great transition: the promise and lure of the times ahead, GSG.

GODET, M. (2001). Manuel de prospective stratégique: tome 1 – une indiscipline intellectuelle. 2. ed. Paris: Dunod.

JOHNSON, A. (1998). Functions in innovation system approaches. Department of Industrial Dynamics, Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg. Working paper.

LIPSOR (2010). MICMAC: se poser les bonnes questions et identifier les variables clés. Laboratoire d’Investigation en Prospective, Stratégie et Organisation. 2010. http://www.3ie.fr/lipsor/micmac.htm [Accessed April 19, 2013].

MALERBA, F. (2004). Sectorial systems of innovation: basic concepts. In: Malerba, F. (ed.) Sectoral systems of innovation, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 9-41.

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL (2002). Mapping the Global Future 2020. New York: Council of Foreign Relations.

SANMARTÍN, J., Hronszky, I. (eds.) (1994). Superando fronteras: estudios europeos de ciencia tecnología-sociedad y evaluación de tecnologías. Barcelona: Anthropos.

SANMARTÍN, J., Ortí, A. (1992). Evaluación de tecnologias. In: Sanmartín, J et al (eds). Estudios sobre sociedad y tecnología. Barcelona: Anthropos.

SCHOEMAKER, P. J. H., Van der Heijden, C. A. J. M. (1992). Integrating scenarios into strategic planning at Royal Dutch/ Shell: case study. Planning Review, May/June 1992, p. 41- 46.

SCHOT, J. W. (1992). Constructive technology assessment and technology dynamics: the case of clean technologies. Science, Technology & Human Values, v.18, n.1, p. 36-56.

SCHOT, J. W., Rip, A. (1998). The past and future of constructive technology assessment. Technology Forecasting and Social Change, v.54, p.251-268.

SCHWARTZ, P. (1996). The art of the long view: planning for the future in an uncertain world. New York: Doubleday Pub.

SCHWARTZ, P. (2004). Inevitable surprises. New York: Gotham Books.

SHELL (2005). Global Scenarios 2025. http:www.shell.com [Accessed April 19, 2013].

SHRADER-FRECHETTE, K. (1985). Technology assessment, expert disagreement, and democratic procedures. Research in Philosophy & Technology, v.8, JAI Press, New York.

SMITS, R., Leyten, J., Den Hertog, P. (1995). Technology assessment and technology policy in Europe: new concepts, new goals, new infrastructures, Policy Sciences, v. 28, p.281-299, 1995.

TODT, J. O. (2002). Innovación y regulación: la influencia de los actores sociales en el cambio tecnológico: el caso de la ingeniería genética agrícola. 293 p. Tesis Doctoral. Universitat de Valencia.

VAN DER HEIJDEN, K. (2005). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation. 2.ed. West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons.

WORLD BUSINESS COUNCIL FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (2010). Vision 2050: the new agenda for business. 2010.

Published
2013-04-30
How to Cite
Almeida, M. F. L. de, & Moraes, C. A. C. de. (2013). Diffusion of Emerging Technologies for Sustainable Development: Prospective Assessment for Public Policies. Journal of Technology Management & Innovation, 8, 228-238. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-27242013000300021